How Vaccine Implementation Will Impact 2021

I’ve been in lots of discussions with clients on scenarios related to the COVID vaccine. Now with FDA approval of a vaccine the implementation and acceptance of it by consumers is the most important factor in economic recovery next year.

Most experts base their projections on a best and a worst-case playbook, with the best-case having vaccinations largely underway and accepted by June. Worst case is December next year. Important for both cases is the willingness of consumers to take the shot(s) and when.

Data insights company, IRI, recently surveyed consumers to get a glimpse of future acceptance of the vaccine and their willingness to take the shot with at least one quarter of the population (82.5 million people) not planning to get vaccinated at all.

Whether it be a vaccine or herd immunity, projections that retailers will begin to return to something that looks like normal beginning in June or July. There are billions of dollars riding on that projection.

For example, due to COVID, IRI reports that 80% of all categories in the consumer package goods (CPG) industry saw sales growth of 5% or more because of the virus. How will the end of the pandemic affect sales as we move forward in specific product categories ranging from dry ice to paper towels and razors?

Being nimble and having a willingness to pivot will continue next year based on market conditions, but here are some key elements to consider:

1. Retailers and their customers made e-commerce part of their normal. From order ahead and curbside pickup to full e-commerce, billions have been invested in e-commerce and in purchases by consumers that will continue, no matter the vaccination level.

• Behaviors will need further segmentation by demographics. A Gen Z will react to the opening of the economy differently than Boomers. Marketers will invest more in responding appropriately to each with micro strategies.

• Fresh, unique content per segment. Digital on steroids with heavier use of video with engaging, relevant content will be needed to drive increased usage of a product in multiple applications, e.g. six new ways to use marinara sauce.

2021 promises to be as crazy as this one. If you are in need of some fresh ideas to make the most of it, we’re here.